SOURCE FILE · THE SENATE MAP
Thirty-five Senate seats are on the ballot November 3, and Democrats need a net gain of four to take the chamber. This is where every incumbent stands with nine weeks to go, sorted by how much trouble they are in.
Republican Seats, Most Endangered First
Twenty-two Republican-held seats. Sorted by the consensus of three nonpartisan forecasters — Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections — none of which endorses candidates. Ratings as of late August 2026. Where two seats carry identical ratings it says so.
North Carolina — open seat; Thom Tillis retiring. Lean D · Lean D · Tilt D. The only seat in the country all three already score as a Democratic pickup. Roy Cooper against Michael Whatley — the record on both men is here.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Maine — Susan Collins, running. Toss-up · Toss-up · Tilt R. Tied with Ohio on the ratings.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Ohio — special election for the remainder of JD Vance's term. Jon Husted, appointed to it in January 2025, against Sherrod Brown, who held the state's other seat for three terms until 2024. Toss-up · Toss-up · Tilt R.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Alaska — Dan Sullivan, running. Toss-up · Toss-up · Lean R. Tied with Texas on the ratings.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Texas — open seat; John Cornyn lost his primary. Ken Paxton against James Talarico. Toss-up · Toss-up · Lean R. Cook moved this one from Lean R on August 20.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Iowa — open seat; Joni Ernst retiring. Toss-up · Lean R · Tilt R. Cook moved this one the same day it moved Texas.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Nebraska — Pete Ricketts, running, against Dan Osborn, an independent who says he will caucus with neither party. Likely R · Likely R · Likely R.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Kansas — Roger Marshall, running. Likely R · Likely R · Solid R.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
South Carolina — Darline Graham, appointed to the seat after Lindsey Graham's death, against Annie Andrews. Solid R · Safe R · Likely R.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
The other thirteen are rated Solid or Safe Republican by all three. Alabama (Tuberville retiring), Arkansas (Cotton), Florida — special (Moody), Idaho (Risch), Kentucky (McConnell retiring), Louisiana (Cassidy lost his primary), Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Montana (Daines retiring), Oklahoma (Armstrong, appointed, not running), South Dakota (Rounds), Tennessee (Hagerty), West Virginia (Capito), Wyoming (Lummis retiring).
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Democratic Seats, Most Endangered First
Thirteen Democratic-held seats. Same three forecasters, same sort, same date.
Michigan — open seat; Gary Peters retiring. Toss-up · Toss-up · Toss-up. The only Democratic seat all three call a pure toss-up.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
New Hampshire — open seat; Jeanne Shaheen retiring. Lean D · Lean D · Tilt D.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Georgia — Jon Ossoff, running. Lean D · Likely D · Tilt D. Ranked below New Hampshire only because Sabato has Georgia a step safer.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
Minnesota — open seat; Tina Smith retiring. Likely D · Likely D · Likely D.
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
The other nine are rated Solid or Safe Democratic by all three. Colorado (Hickenlooper), Delaware (Coons), Illinois (Durbin retiring), Massachusetts (Markey), New Jersey (Booker), New Mexico (Luján), Oregon (Merkley), Rhode Island (Reed), Virginia (Warner).
Cook Political Report · Sabato's Crystal Ball · Inside Elections
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★ The Hole
which one do you want opened up first. these are the seats, not the stories — tell me which one looks worth a file of its own and it gets one.
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